‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Supplies.

The repercussions of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now impacting India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy transports through the Strait of Hormuz, availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, pushing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases close completely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing crowds outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply isn't available," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most eateries run either on commercial LPG cylinders or direct gas lines, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the south. People are switching to solid fuels and electric cookers to keep their operations going."

City-Specific Fallout

In Mumbai, media reports say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their fuel reserves have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and no food items - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are cutting lunch service and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers observe a spike in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the authorities maintains there is adequate supply.

India has more than a vast number of household consumers and authorities say cylinders are being redirected to households as geopolitical strain from the regional hostilities ripple through energy markets.

Roughly a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the war.

The petroleum ministry says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for critical services such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been triggered by false reports. The regular refill period for domestic LPG remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the anxiety is moving beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the description reads.

According to data from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be premature.

India imports almost all of its petroleum. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly compensated for by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a sector expert.

Based on maritime intelligence and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The key weakness is kitchen fuel, experts note.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to extract a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be moderately reduced through diversification. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the concern on the ground is not just tight supply but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."

For now, India's oil supplies may be cushioned by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.