Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Major Obstacles in the Selection Process
Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
